For the last couple of weeks I have had Sean Bean's voice stuck in my head.
The full fat Sheffield version.
Two words.
'Winter's coming.'
Oh yes. Is winter ever coming.
A couple of sayings have been in my mind keeping Sean company.
First up, an old piece rock solid common sense.
'Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.'
And then a CIA adage I gathered up somewhere back in the 70's when Langley operatives were urged to always follow the rule of the six 'p's'.
'Proper planning prevents piss poor performance.'
Well I am happy to assure you The First Base Agency is every bit as willing to follow the rule of the six 'p's' as the spies of Central Intelligence Agency.
So.
The task at hand.
A plan for what is almost certainly going to be the hardest winter any of us has ever known.
Having spent a couple of weeks going through the planning process, it seems only right and proper to share it.
Warts and all.
For better or for worse.
Let's start with first principles.
The core role of our foodbank is to make sure anyone living in the 3400 square miles of South Scotland we cover gets something to eat if their cupboards are bare.
Our model is different to most foodbanks. We don't simply distribute the food donations we receive and reluctantly close the doors once all the food has gone.
Instead we have always managed to keep up with demand.
If there is not enough food donated to us, then we buy in what we need to keep up.
In twenty years we have never once had to tell someone we can't give them anything due to a lack of food.
I really, really hope I will still be able to make this statement in a year's time.
The big question of course is just how high the coming demand is going to be.
I have decided to work on what might be a very optimistic assumption. I am assuming our new Prime Minister is probably going to be truly awful but probably not suicidal.
Allowing the October price hikes to go through in full would surely be absolute political suicide as 75% of Tory voters back some kind of price cap.
If the new prices are indeed applied in full, then there is no way we will be able to keep up with demand no matter what we do.
I am therefore assuming the power prices will be capped at the level they are at now.
This of course is still double what they were last year. So far the true impact of the recent rises has been hidden by a long, warm summer.
But not for much longer now.
As Sean keeps on telling me.
Winter's coming.
So. Power bills up 100% and food costs up over 20%.
Benefits frozen and wages nowhere close to keeping up.
Way back in the days before the pandemic, we helped out lots and lots of families who were skirting along the very edge of financial ruin. Incomings would cover outgoings by the skin of their teeth. An unexpected one off expense would put them completely under water. A broken boiler. A stinging MOT. A sick cat.
With power prices double and food prices up by a quarter, each and every one of these families and individuals will be completely under water when the first bite of winter demands some heat in the home.
What will this look like in terms of demand for our services?
My best guess is a 250% increase.
So the money we now spend on one emergency food parcel will have to run to five emergency food parcels in November.
Will food donations increase to help us meet this growing need?
No, for a whole variety of reasons. Already food banks all across the country are reporting a steep decline in donated food.
Will cash donations increase?
I sincerely hope so!
There is a miserable reality here. We are entirely dependent on the Westminster Government borrowing enough cash to provide the kind of emergency relief the likes of First Base are going to need.
Some of this borrowed cash needs to be first of all sent up to Edinburgh and then down the line to local Councils.
The Scottish Government isn't allowed to borrow money.
Our local council isn't allowed to borrow money.
So its back to hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
And the worst is pretty bad.
How many emergency parcels might we be required to issue in January?
My best guess is 4000.
What kind of resources can we be confident of using to make this happen?
Maybe £8000 at a pinch.
A big pinch.
Which means £2 per emergency food parcel.
For First Base, an emergency food parcel needs to contain enough for 3 meals per day for three days for one person.
Nine meals delivering a minimum of 5000 calories and achieving a reasonably full belly.
And cost isn't the only issue to be dealt with. Ever since the pandemic, availabity has become more and more of a problem. In the days before Covid 19, I could log onto an online supermarket and order 100 tins of value baked beans. There is no such thing in the harsh reality of the new normal. Everything which is good value is strictly rationed. Asda have their value range rationed to five items per order. Morrisons don't even list their value range.
So the task has been to create a food parcel which meets both the nine filling meals requirement as well as the availability requirement as well as the whole thing costing no more than two quid requirement....
Yeah.
I know.
Well, it's time to smash the metaphorical bottle of Moet on the side of the metaphorical newly minted cruise liner.
It's time to unveil the 2022/23 First Base Winter Emergency Food Parcel.
4 x BREAD ROLLS
2 x BAKED BEANS
250g PORRIDGE OATS
250g PENNE PASTA
1 x PIE
1 x HOME MADE SCOTCH BROTH
2 x EGGS
100g SUGAR
20g KUCHERAK SEASONING
MEALS
1 x BEANS ON TOAST – 700 CALS
1 x EGGS ON TOAST = 400 CALS
3 x PORRIDGE – 2000 CALS
1 x PIE AND BEANS – 600 CALS
2 x PASTA WITH KUCHERAK – 800 CALS
1 x SOUP AND TWO ROLLS – 700 CALS
TOTAL CALORIES – 5200
This bears no resemblance to the kind of food parcels we have been providing for the last twenty years. Those who have used our service in the past will be very disappointed when they take a look inside the bag. We will be including an explanatory note and apologising.
It is what Scotland 2022 looks like.
All of a sudden a First Base Emergency Food Parcel bears an uneasy similarity to a UN Emergency Food Parcel in the South Sudan or Haiti.
Well.
Not quite.
But we're getting there.
It's what 5200 calories spread out over three days for £2 looks like.
And we couldn't have got anywhere close to managing this without a whole lot of help.
Massive thanks are absolutely required.
To Kerr at the Little Bakery in Dumfries for helping out with pies and rolls and homemade soup and storage space which enables us to order in three tonnes of baked beans from Bookers at less than 30p a tin.
To Nith Valley eggs for supplying us with empty egg boxes at cost price so we can break down half dozen boxes into 2 egg boxes.
To Farmfoods for not rationing us on their porridge and agreeing to order in half a tonne of oats per month for us to collect.
To Thompsons Foods of Dumfries for allocating us the storage required for us to buy in three tonnes of pasta ready for the winter.
To the volunteers at Summerhill Community Centre and Moffat Town Hall who have committed to prepare hundreds of portions of homemade Scotch Broth through the winter.
Without all this support, there is no way we could realistically plan to help out 4000 people a month through the coming winter.
Not a chance.
Well at least we now have a chance. A good chance.
Our food parcels will be plain and basic. But they will stave off hunger. They will get people through to the warmth of the spring.
We will still be looking for all kinds of help.
Every portion of pasta, oats, Kucherak Seasoning and sugar will need bagging up. If you fancy doing some bagging up at home in front of the tele, please give me a call on 07770443483 or email me at markglenmill@aol.com.
Every donation of baked beans, porridge oats or penne pasta we receive will mean we have to buy in less.
Every cash donation will help us to help more people if we have to.
And of course we will still be delighted with any donated food item which isn't on the list. These will be the extras we can add to the basic parcels. Maybe one item per parcel. Maybe two. Maybe three. I'm sure you get my drift.
I never thought we would ever be gearing up to provide this kind of food parcel.
But we are where we are.
We are in Scotland 2022 and it's going to be a very, very long hard winter.
If you are minded to help us out you can find our online fundraising page via the link below.
THE FIRST BASE ONLINE FUNDRAISING PAGE
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